Archive for November 27th, 2007

Citigroup (C)

Citigroup:

  1. Beaten up lately, for good reason.. 48 -> 30 in the last 6 weeks
  2. Dividend still holds, though possibly not forever
  3. $200+ per share in assets
  4. It’s a huge bank, huge enough to survive it’s problems, even if they’re billion dollar problems
  5. 7.5 billion $ investment
  6. Layoffs

So I bought some Jan’10 30 calls for roughly 8. If I had a little more time to babysit the order, 7.5 would have been a better target.

Exit Strategy:

I have to hold for at least a month. But anyone following this can sell Dec or Jan calls against it to provide downside protection. I’d recommend the Dec 32.5’s right now, and the Jan’s of the same if we’re at this level post expiry. 30s should also be considered if we drop below 30.

Other than protection, this is a long term holding. I’d expect to make ~1 per month on average selling calls against it, while accumulating some longer term slow gains on the leaps. If the implied volatility dropped to such a level where I couldn’t sell calls for ~1.5 a month (expecting to lose a few, so ~1 on average for income) and the stock had recovered to a level fitting of it’s business, then I’d consider closing the position.

It’s also possible that C will drop further. If I can roll these options down to Jan10 25’s, for less than 1.75, then I’d do that as well ($5 improvement in strike for $1.75)

I expect to have this position through the end of 2008.

The caffeine & sugar experiment of 2007

We go through our daily lives putting any number of things into our bodies, caffeine and sugar being somewhat dominant for me lately.

As a result, I’ve noticed 2 things..

  • Caffeine reduces my patience..  I’m naturally a bit quick to start off with, and additional caffeine only serves to lower the response time limit before I move on with other people.  I consider this a poor response on my part, and the first step in fixing it is to acknowledge the problem.
  • Sugar wears off quickly..  I’ve had upwards of 3 twenty ounce cokes in a day. That’s 750 calories, or about 45 teaspoons worth of sugar.  And the trick seems to be, once I have the first soda (either in the morning or with lunch) I need to have additional sodas to keep from falling off as the day wears on.  This is more about the sugar than the caffeine in those sodas.

So, in light of both of those things, I’m cutting back..  hopefully off, but there’s workplace performance to account for, and I have to get my job done above all other desires..

Day 1..  Made it to 4pm without either soda or coffee, but caved in light of excessive yawning.  One soda total for the day (not counting the tonics mixed with my vodkas later that evening)

Day 2..  It’s nearly 4, and I’m again yawning more than I’d like..  I’ve made exception today to have milk as alternative.  It’s arguably better for you than soda, while still having lactose (milk sugar) to give me a little bit of help.  Bonus points for vitamins and protein, and it’s skim so my fat intake isn’t increasing.  Plus, it’s free thanks to all those coffee drinkers in the office.

I’ll let you know how it continues..  hopefully I don’t develop a half gallon a day milk habit.